Math 221 (Elements of Statistics)
Instructor: Dr. Terry Rephann
Spring 1998
Office: College Center, Room 160
Date: W 6:00 PM -8:45 PM
Office hours: by appointment
Place: Allegany College, H-4
Office phone: (301) 724-7700 x5207
Office fax: (301) 784-5012
e-mail: equinfo@equotient.net
http://www.equotient.net

** Please note: Under extenuating circumstances, the instructor has the right to change any course provisions or requirements during the semester.

I. Purpose

Catalog Description: Offered first and second semesters. Offered as demand warrants in the summer session. Check with advisor regarding department designation and transfer information. Three hours lecture and discussion a week. Fee: $10.00.

Organization and analysis of data, frequency distribution, average, measures of variability, probability, normal distribution, sampling, estimation, hypothesis, quality testing control, significance levels, t test, z test, Ç2 test, regression and correlation index numbers. This course includes the use of computers to analyze statistical data. Prior experience with computers is not necessary. Prerequisite: Mathematics 101 or Math 93 (Intermediate Algebra) or equivalent. 3 semester hours.

Course Objectives: A course designed to enable the student to develop sufficient skills in probability and statistics to satisfy the student's needs in a variety of majors. The emphasis is on applications of statistics to real world problems that the student may encounter in his/her major, career or life.

1. To learn the vocabulary pertinent to a first course in elementary statistics.

2. To develop a basis for understanding and applying the concepts, principles and skills of statistical analysis.

3. Study of probability of events and application to real problems.

4. To develop a basis for reading, interpreting and evaluating statistical research in student's field of interest.

5. To develop a foundation for further study.

6. To develop a basis for questioning the validity of conclusions derived from statistical studies.

7. To use problem solving techniques in the development of statistical formulas for confidence intervals and hypothesis tests.

II. Course Policies

A. Attendance: Students are recommended to attend classes regularly because exams will be based on the material presented in class as well as assigned readings. In addition, homework problems will be collected every class period, and late homework will not be accepted. Students should strive to arrive in the room(s) before class begins.

B. Class Participation: Participation is not required, but it is strongly recommended.

 

C. Grading: Grades will be based upon the student's performance on four or five exams valued at 100 points each, homework assignments worth a total of 100 points, and three statistical projects worth a total of 75 points (guidelines for these projects will be distributed later). The grading scale is as follows: 90-100%= A, 80-89% = B, 70-79% = C, 60-69% = D, and 0-59% = F.

D. Extra Credit: At least one extra credit project worth 10 points will be offered..

E. Tutoring, extra help sessions: Contact the instructor or the Instructional Assistance Center. I generally will be available 10-20 minutes before the class begins for consultation. If a student needs additional help, please contact me about scheduling another time.

F. Make-up Test Policy: If a student is unable to take an exam at its regularly scheduled time, he or she will be given a make-up exam only if he or she contacts me before the regularly scheduled exam. For athletes and club members who are on the road at times, a written request from the coach or faculty advisor is required in advance. Make-up exams will be given during the final week of class (and, needless to say, the make-up exam will be different from the regular exam).

G. Assignment Format and Deadlines: Instructions and deadlines will be announced in class and distributed to the class.

H. Plagiarism and Cheating: Cheating and plagiarism will be punished severely. Please consult with the Student Handbook regarding College guidelines.

III. Course Requirements

A. Required Text: Brase, Charles H. and Corrinne P. Brase. 1995. Understandable Statistics. 5th Edition. D. C. Heath and Company. Lexington, MA.

B. Course Outline:

UNIT I. Descriptive Statistics

A. Standard definitions and vocabulary

Required Reading: Sections 1.1-1.3

Rephann, Terance, Margaret Dalton, Anthony Stair, and Andrew Isserman. 1997. Casino gambling as an economic development strategy. Tourism Economics. 3, 2: 1-24.

B. Random Samples

Required Reading: Section 2.1

C. Displaying data with graphs, tables, and other devices

Required Reading: Section 2.2-2.3

Optional Reading: Section 2.4

D. Measures of central tendency

Required Reading: Section 3.1

E. Measures of variation

Required Reading: Section 3.2

F. Chebyshev's Theorem

Required Reading: Section 3.2

G. Measures of Skewness and Kurtosis

H. Working with grouped data

Required Reading: Section 3.3

I. How to lie with statistics

Optional Reading: Huff, Darrell. 1954. How to lie with statistics. New York: Norton.

J. Computing Tools for Research and Analysis -- Making Graphs and Tables.

Software:

Lotus 1-2-3. Excel, Quattro Pro.

UNIT II. Probability

A. Basic Concepts (Events and sample spaces)

Required Reading: Sections 4.1

B. Compound Events, Complementary Events, and Conditional Probability

Required Reading: Section 4.2

C. Counting Methods (Multiplication Rule, Permutations, Combinations)

Required Reading: Section 4.3

D. Random Variables and Probability Distributions

Required Reading: Section 4.4

E. Bernoulli Trials

Required Reading: Section 5.1

F. Binomial Distribution

Required Reading: Sections 5.2-5.3

G. Computing Tools for Research and Analysis -- Modelling and Simulation.

Software:

Sim City 2000. (Maxis, Inc.), CD-ROM

UNIT III. Normal Distributions

A. Normal and Standard Normal Probability Distributions

Required Reading: Sections 6.1 and 6.2

B. Non-Normal Probability Distributions (Binomial, Uniform, “, t , F, and Ç2)

C. Areas Under Normal Curves

Required Reading: Sections 6.3 and 6.4

D. Sampling Distributions

Required Reading: Section 7.1

E. Properties of Statistics (Bias, Efficiency and Consistency)

F. Central Limit Theorem

Required Reading: Section 7.2

G. Normal Approximation for the Binomial Distribution

Required Reading: Section 7.3

H. Computing Tools for Research and Analysis -- Statistical Software

Software:

SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences), SAS (Statistical Analysis System), ComputerStat, Minitab

UNIT IV. Hypothesis Testing and Confidence Intervals

A. Hypothesis Testing

Required Reading: Section 9.1

B. Tests for means and proportions

Required Reading: Section 9.2, 9.4, and 9.5

C. p values

Required Reading: Section 9.3

D. Tests for the difference of two means

Required Reading: Section 9.7

E. Confidence intervals for means and proportions

Required Reading: Section 8.1, 8.2, and 8.3

F. Computing tools for research and analysis -- Data Collection

Software:

Netscape Navigator 2.0, Netscape Communications Corporation.

USA Counties. (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce), CD-ROM

UNIT V. Advanced Topics

A. Correlation

Required Reading: Sections 10.1 and 10.3

B. Linear Regression

Required Reading: Section 10.2 and 10.5

C. Chi Square Distribution tests

Required Reading: Section 11.1

D. F Distribution and Analysis of Variance

Required Reading: Section 11.4

E. Non-parametric Statistics

Required Reading: Section 12.1

Preliminary Schedule:

1/21/1998 Intro, I.A, I.B, I.C

1/28/1998 I.D, I.E, I.F

2/4/1998 I.F, I.G, I.H

2/11/1998 Test I (covers Unit I), II.A, II.B, II.C

2/18/1998 II.C, II.D, IIE

2/25/1998 IIF, II.G

3/4/1998 TestII (covers Unit II), IIIA, IIIB, IIIC

3/18/1998 IIID, IIIE, IIIF, IIIG [Collect 1st project]

3/25/1998 IIIH, IVA

4/1/1998 Test III (covers Unit III), IVB

4/8/1998 IVC, IVD

4/15/1998 IVE, IVF [Collect 2nd project]

4/22/1998 Test IV (covers Unit IV), VA, VB

4/29/1998 VC, VD, VE [Collect 3rd project]

5/6/1998 Test V (covers Unit V)

C. Library Assignments.

The assignments alluded to in section II C. may require use of the library.

D. Additional Required Student Reading Assignments.

Additional short readings may be distributed to the class if time permits. The instructor will notify students if they are responsible for the material contained therein.

E. Recommended and Optional Readings.

These readings are listed in the course outline above.

F. Supplemental Learning Resources. Computer software demonstrations, World Wide Web demonstrations, multimedia presentations may be used in this class.

Homework Problems for Elements of Statistics

Section 1.1 #s 3, 4, 7, 8, 10.

Section 2.1 #s 3, 4, 7, 10, 13, 19, 20

Section 2.2 #s 1, 4, 7, 8, 15, 16

Section 2.3 #s 3, 6, 13

Section 3.1 #s 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 10, 15, 16

Section 3.2 #s 1, 2, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13 (Calculator)

Section 3.3 #s 1, 2, 6, 10, 11, 13, 14

Section 4.1 #s 3, 5, 6, 10, 12, 13, 14

Section 4.2 #s 1-12 (All), 14, 17, 19, 24, 25

Section 4.3 #s 1-22 (All), 24, 26, 28

Section 4.4 #s 1, 4, 5, 8, 10, 11-13

Section 5.1 #s 1-6 (All), 8, 10, 11, 14

Section 5.2 #s 1-5 (All), 6, 8, 11, 13, 18, 20, 21

Section 5.3 #s 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 11, 14, 16, 19, 20

Section 6.1 #s 1-13 (All)

Section 6.2 #s 1-4 (All), 7-10 (All)

Section 6.3 #s 1-10 (All), 11, 16, 21, 22, 28, 32, 35

Section 6.4 #s 1, 4, 6, 9, 11, 14, 23, 26, 27

Section 7.2 #s 1-5 (All), 6, 8, 9, 11, 14, 15, 18

Section 7.3 #s 1-5 (All), 8, 10, 13, 15

Section 9.1 #s 6-10(All)

Section 9.2 #s 1-5 (All), 6, 8, 11, 12, 15.

Section 9.4 #s 1-5 (All), 6, 8, 10, 11, 16, 17

Section 9.5 #s 1, 3, 4, 7, 8, 10, 11, 14, 17

Section 9.3 #s 1-5 (All), 7, 8, 11, 14

Section 9.7 #s 1, 3, 4, 8, 11, 17, 20, 25

Section 8.1 #s 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 10, 14

Section 8.2 #s 1-4 (All), 5, 6, 8, 9, 12, 15, 17

Section 8.3 #s 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11, 12, 16, 19

Section 10.1 #s 1-11 (All)

Section 10.3 #s 1-4 (All), 5, 6, 8, 10, 13, 14

Section 10.2 #s 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 10, 13

Section 10.5 #s 1-2, TBA

Section 11.1 #s 1, 2, 4, 7, 10

Section 11.4 #s 1, 2, 4, 7

Section 12.1 #s TBA

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